In Search of Distress Risk

JY Campbell, J Hilscher, J Szilagyi (2008)
The Journal of Finance

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Commerce and Management
Economics
 Abstract
This paper explores the determinants of corporate failure and the pricing of financially distressed stocks whose failure probability, estimated from a dynamic logit model using accounting and market variables, is high. Since 1981, financially distressed stocks have delivered anomalously low returns. They have lower returns but much higher standard deviations, market betas, and loadings on value and small-cap risk factors than stocks with low failure risk. These patterns are more pronounced for stocks with possible informational or arbitrage-related frictions. They are inconsistent with the conjecture that the value and size effects are compensation for the risk of financial distress. THE CONCEPT OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS has been invoked in the asset pricing lit- erature to explain otherwise anomalous patterns in the cross-section of stock returns (Chan and Chen (1991) and Fama and French (1996)). The idea is that certain companies have an elevated probability that they will fail to meet their financial obligations; the stocks of these financially distressed companies tend to move together, so their risk cannot be diversified away; and investors charge a premium for bearing such risk.1 The premium for distress risk may not be cap- tured by the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) if corporate failures

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Authors: JY Campbell, J Hilscher, J Szilagyi
Year published: 2008
DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01416.x
Full-text available: Yes
Journal: The Journal of Finance
Publisher: Wiley